Last week, I
attended the 16th annual Top 10 Tech Trends panel held by the Churchill Club and Forbes. Here’s what some Silicon Valley V.C. firms are predicting will be the big tech trends over the next 5 years and the audience's reaction to these predictions.
Trend #1 –
Business Apps We Use Today Will be Reinvented
63% of audience agreed
There is a
big opportunity to transform business applications that workers use, similar to
the way that we use apps in our personal lives. Consumer apps can share
data immediately in real time. Better leveraging this model in the Enterprise can make people more
intelligent and collaborative in their work relationships as well.
It was pointed out that the gap between the enterprise and consumer experience
is likely due to the fact that consumer-facing businesses have historically been more motivated
by the end user experience.
Some panelists felt this trend was already happening and that it wasn't a new prediction.
Trend #2 – Digital
Disintermediation and the Fall of Banks
59% of audience agreed
There will be a fundamental restructuring of the legacy bank
industry with the emergence of start-ups offering digital wallets, peer-to-peer
lending and new currency approaches like Bitcoin.
It was pointed out that a lot of people are underserved by the banking industry
today and that algorithms can likely manage money better than people do.
There was a
mixed reaction from the panel about this happening in the next five years.
Trend #3 –
Smart Home Networks
87% of audience agreed
predicts that smart software platforms will reinvent Wi-Fi networks in the
home. There are hundreds of millions of home networks and home connectivity is
expected to explode over the next five years. The emergence of new products
provide an opportunity for technologists to build smart network stacks around them. In the near
future, your home could do things like let you know when your kids are home
Trend #4 –
The Healthcare Industry Mimics Kodak and Goes ‘Poof’
32% of audience agreed
capitalist believes that employers with more than 500 employees will start to
self insure, working directly with local healthcare providers in their
geography. There will be a move away
from physician networks and insurance companies acting as the middle man.
of panelists were skeptical this would occur in the next 5 years since
healthcare is a regulated industry.
Trend #5 –
The Last Second Economy
87% of audience agreed
The rise of
smart phones, instant access to actionable and contextual knowledge and the
fact that expectations for high service quality have become the norm (think
Uber and getting a ride any time you need it, where you need it) will drive
Imagine your child has fever at 2AM. Instead of going to an Urgent Care
location, you could consult with a doctor immediately via your smart phone.
A kid is stuck on a homework assignment that his parents can’t help with but
there is instant access to a tutor online.
B2B – A
person trying to start a company can instantly access other entrepreneurs to
get advice via a connected device.
panelist indicated that mobility provides a “multiplier effect” with access to
tap instant labor and knowledge (a knowledge economy) that allows people
to make not one decision but thousands of decisions in a short period of time
with the help of others (crowd sourcing).
Trend # 6 –
Cyber Attacks in the Future Will Be
Targeted at The Home
65% of audience agreed
As homes and
cars become their own inter-connected devices, there will be more hacking and
identity theft. This panelist said that security is typically an after-thought
for most people and that more subtle attacks over time will be revealed, especially
in wealthier neighborhoods.
was skeptical about widespread hacks but agreed that more targeted efforts in
lucrative areas were likely.
Trend #7 –
The Future of Healthcare Begins with Data (From Your Gut)
72% of audience agreed
shared that more research is showing that bugs that live in your gut are
strongly related to your current state of health and to diseases like cancer or
disorders like autism.
challenge has been to digitize this information. The prediction is that there
will be a massive wave over the next 5 years so that technology like Watson will be
sitting at the table when doctors are making a decision about a patient.
Trend #8 – A
Female Founder Will Create a $50 B Exit
66% of audience agreed
technology are collapsing the barriers of innovation, letting more types of
people in different places emerge with all types of new ideas. It was
emphasized that conditions exist for this trend to happen but it will likely
take a massive win by a woman (thus the $50B figure) in order to facilitate this
as a trend for women tech leaders.
agreed the time is right but also reiterated that currently only 3 percent of
women-funded tech start-ups exist today.
Panelists from Accel Partners, Canvas, Floodgate, Venrock and Greylock shared their tech trend predictions in Santa Clara last week.
Trend #9 –
Spot Pricing for Health Care Procedures
33% of audience agreed
predicted that the health care industry will move to dynamic pricing that allows people to book certain procedures online since medical
equipment is heavily underutilized today. For example, a person could pay less to get
an MRI during off hours.
had mixed views, thinking that this would work for some procedures but that
patients are willing to pay more to guarantee that they have the attention of a particular
physician depending on the situation.
Trend #10 –
Credit Cards are the New App Platform
58% of audience agree
indicated that there is a huge wave of innovation that will happen around
credit cards in the next 5 years and that a cloud- connected card could:
1 – Provide
expanded memory for loyalty programs and coupons.
spending trend data over time.
3- Allow for
‘special use’ cards. For example, a child could have special card designed to
only allow him/her to ride the bus or buy school lunches.
Here's the overall summary of how the audience reacted to the technology trend predictions: